Nearly 1 Million Indians Face a US Green Card Backlog: Why the Wait Could Stretch for Decades

For thousands of Indian professionals working in the United States, getting a green card has long been viewed as the final step toward permanent residency and greater stability. But the latest figures show just how difficult that path has become.

An analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) estimates that 996,599 Indians were waiting for employment-based green cards in the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 categories as of December 2025. That represents roughly 79% of the estimated 1.26 million people in these three employment-based queues.

The most striking part of the analysis is its estimate for people entering the queue recently. Depending on the category, an Indian applicant filing in 2026 could potentially face a wait of 179 years in EB-2 and 38 years in EB-3, while the estimated EB-1 wait is considerably shorter. These are projections rather than guarantees, and future changes in immigration policy, visa availability and the size of the queue could alter the outcome.

The numbers nevertheless highlight a much larger issue: the US employment-based immigration system is struggling to keep pace with demand from highly skilled workers, particularly applicants from India.

Why Is the US Green Card Backlog So Large?

The US employment-based immigration system has annual numerical limits. Under current rules, the employment-based system has a basic annual limit of 140,000 immigrant visas, and that figure includes qualifying family members of principal applicants.

There is also a country-specific limitation. Generally, nationals of one country cannot receive more than 7% of employment-based immigrant visas in a fiscal year.

This creates a particularly difficult situation for countries such as India, where the number of professionals seeking permanent residence is far larger than the number of visas available under the system.

The result is a queue in which a person's professional qualifications do not necessarily determine how quickly permanent residency becomes available.

The Per-Country Limit Matters

The country cap is one of the most important reasons the Indian backlog has become so pronounced.

India and China, for example, receive the same basic country limit as much smaller countries. This means the system does not simply allocate employment-based green cards according to the number of applicants from each country.

For Indian professionals, this can translate into a long wait even when they have already built careers, purchased homes, raised families and established deep connections in the United States.

Nearly One Million Indians Are in the Queue

The estimated Indian backlog stood at 996,599 people at the end of 2025.

The distribution across the three major categories shows where the pressure is concentrated:

• EB-1: 51,619 Indians
• EB-2: 731,566 Indians
• EB-3: 213,414 Indians

The EB-2 category therefore accounts for the overwhelming majority of the Indian backlog.

The overall Indian backlog also increased by 19.3% between April 2020 and December 2025. During that period, the EB-2 backlog increased by 17.6%, while EB-3 grew by 51.1%. The EB-1 backlog moved in the opposite direction, declining by 28.3%.

These figures show that the problem is not simply a temporary slowdown. The number of people waiting has grown substantially over several years.

Understanding EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3

To understand why the backlog affects so many Indian professionals, it helps to know what these employment-based categories represent.

EB-1

EB-1 is designed for certain highly accomplished individuals, including people with extraordinary ability, outstanding researchers and professors, as well as certain multinational executives and managers.

Because of the nature of the category, eligibility requirements can be more demanding.

EB-2

EB-2 generally covers professionals with advanced degrees or individuals who demonstrate exceptional ability.

The category is particularly important for Indian technology professionals, engineers, researchers and other highly educated workers.

A bachelor's degree followed by five years of progressive experience may also qualify as equivalent to an advanced degree for certain EB-2 purposes.

EB-3

EB-3 covers professionals, skilled workers and certain other workers.

Although it can provide another employment-based route to permanent residence, Indian applicants have also accumulated a substantial backlog in this category.

What Does a 179-Year Wait Really Mean?

The 179-year figure sounds extraordinary, and it needs to be understood correctly.

It is not a prediction that a particular individual will literally wait 179 years. Instead, it is a potential wait-time calculation based on the size of the queue, annual visa availability and existing immigration rules.

The estimate illustrates how severely the current system can become constrained when new applicants enter a category that already has a massive backlog.

NFAP's analysis indicates that Indians entering the EB-2 queue in 2026 could face a potential wait measured in generations rather than years. For EB-3, the estimated figure is substantially lower but still extraordinarily long. EB-1 has a much shorter projected wait.

Future legislation could also completely change these calculations.

The Visa Bulletin Shows the Depth of the Problem

The monthly US Visa Bulletin provides an important snapshot of how far employment-based queues have moved.

For September 2026, the final action date for Indian EB-1 remained October 15, 2022. EB-2 India was listed as unavailable, while EB-3 India remained at January 1, 2014.

The filing dates were further ahead than the final action dates, but applicants must follow the applicable USCIS instructions to determine which chart can be used for adjustment-of-status filings.

For someone whose priority date is many years after these cut-off dates, the figures demonstrate why permanent residency can remain out of reach despite years of employment in the country.

The Backlog Is Growing Despite Extra Green Cards

One of the more surprising aspects of the situation is that the employment-based system received more green cards than originally expected during fiscal years 2020 through 2024.

According to the NFAP analysis, employment-based immigrants received 980,460 green cards during that period, compared with an expected 700,000.

The additional numbers came largely from unused family-based immigrant visa numbers during the pandemic period, when processing disruptions and lower issuance affected family-based immigration.

Yet even with those additional green cards, the employment-based backlog increased by 20.6% over five years.

That suggests the underlying problem is structural rather than simply the result of a temporary processing disruption.

How the Backlog Affects Indian Professionals

A green card provides much more than permission to remain in the United States permanently. For many workers, it represents freedom to make long-term career and family decisions without being tied as closely to temporary immigration status.

Career Decisions Become More Complicated

Workers waiting for permanent residency may be reluctant to make major career changes because their immigration situation can be connected to their employment.

The uncertainty can also affect employers. Companies may invest heavily in highly skilled workers but still face difficulties retaining them if immigration uncertainty becomes a factor.

Families Face Long-Term Uncertainty

Green card delays can affect spouses and children as well.

Families may postpone decisions involving education, relocation, home purchases and long-term financial planning because they cannot easily predict where they will be living years into the future.

For children who grow up in the United States, the uncertainty can be particularly difficult because their parents may still have unresolved immigration status long after the family has become established in the country.

PERM Processing Adds Another Layer

The green card queue is not necessarily the first delay.

Many employment-based immigrants need labour certification, commonly associated with the PERM process. According to the information cited in the NFAP analysis, labour certification can itself take years.

As of August 2026, the US Department of Labor's listed average processing times were about 403 days for PERM applications under analyst review and 290 days for applications under audit review.

This means applicants can face significant processing time before they even fully enter the later stages of the permanent-residence journey.

What Could Change the Situation?

The size of the backlog has renewed attention on possible immigration reforms.

Potential changes could include increasing employment-based visa numbers, modifying country-specific limits, recapturing unused immigrant visas or changing how dependents are counted.

However, major changes generally require legislative action, meaning there is no simple administrative solution that can instantly eliminate a queue of this size.

Until significant policy changes occur, Indian professionals are likely to continue watching monthly Visa Bulletin movements closely.

What This Means for the Future of US Immigration

The Indian green card backlog raises a broader question about how the United States manages skilled immigration.

Indian professionals are an important part of the US workforce, particularly in technology, engineering, healthcare, research and other highly skilled sectors. When workers remain in temporary status for extended periods, the uncertainty can influence both individuals and businesses.

For the United States, the issue is therefore not only about immigration paperwork. It also touches on workforce planning, competitiveness and the ability of companies to retain experienced international talent.

For India, meanwhile, the situation highlights the complicated reality behind the popular path of studying or working in America and eventually seeking permanent residency.

FAQs About the US Green Card Backlog for Indians

How many Indians are currently in the US employment-based green card backlog?

NFAP estimated that 996,599 Indians were waiting across EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 as of December 2025.

Could an Indian EB-2 applicant really wait 179 years?

The 179-year figure is a potential projected wait, not a guaranteed individual waiting period. It is based on current backlog conditions and immigration rules and could change if Congress alters the system or other factors affect visa availability.

Which category has the largest Indian backlog?

EB-2 has by far the largest Indian backlog, with an estimated 731,566 people at the end of 2025.

Why do Indian applicants face such long waits?

The major factors include the annual employment-based visa limit, the per-country limit and the unusually large number of Indian professionals seeking employment-based permanent residence.

Does an H-1B visa automatically lead to a green card?

No. An H-1B is a temporary work status, while a green card provides permanent-resident status. Moving from one to the other generally requires a separate immigration process.

Can the backlog disappear?

It is possible for future legislation or policy changes to significantly reduce the backlog, but there is no guarantee. The current projections are based on existing conditions and should not be interpreted as permanent forecasts.

Conclusion

The US green card backlog affecting Indian professionals has reached a scale that is difficult to ignore. With nearly one million Indians estimated to be waiting in the first three employment-based categories, the issue has moved beyond individual immigration cases and become a significant workforce and policy concern.

The potential 179-year EB-2 wait for new Indian applicants is best understood as a warning about the mathematical consequences of a system where demand dramatically exceeds available visa numbers. It does not mean that every applicant will literally wait that long.

Ultimately, the future of the backlog will depend heavily on visa availability, processing capacity and, most importantly, whether US lawmakers change the rules governing employment-based immigration.

For Indian professionals already working in America, the story is a reminder that building a career in the United States and securing permanent residency are two very different milestones. The first can happen within years; the second, under today's system, may remain uncertain for a very long time.