Canada’s student-visa surge … now hitting a wall.

Canada’s student-visa surge … now hitting a wall

For many years, Canada was viewed by Indian students as a near-dream destination: study there, work part-time, secure a post-study work permit, and potentially transition into permanent residency (PR). That tide appears to be turning — sharply.

Sharp decline in approval rates

• In August 2025, Canada’s Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data show that about 74 % of Indian study-permit applications were rejected. That’s more than double the rejection rate from August 2023 (~32 %). 

• The absolute number of Indian applicants dropped, too: about 4,515 in August 2025, compared with ~20,900 in August 2023. 

• While global student-permit rejection rates hovered around ~40 %, the rate for Chinese applicants was only ~24 % in the same period. 

What’s driving the change?

A combination of policy, fraud concerns and geopolitical factors:

• Canada reduced its cap on international student permits: for 2025 the cap was set at ~437,000 permits, down by ~10 % from 2024’s ~485,000, and ~35 % from prior peak levels. For Indian applicants a projected ~31 % reduction in visa allocations was estimated. 

• A major reason cited is a crackdown on fraud: in 2023 IRCC uncovered around 1,550 fraudulent Indian study-permit applications tied to fake college acceptance letters.  The enhanced verification regime flagged more than 14,000 suspicious documents globally in 2024. 

• Bilateral relations between India and Canada also appear to have weighed in: diplomatic strains and trust issues were referenced as contributing factors. 

Impact on Canadian institutions

• With fewer Indian students coming in, leading Canadian universities are seeing sharp drops: e.g., the University of Waterloo reported Indian student entrants falling by nearly two-thirds over the past few years. 

• For Canada’s higher-education sector, international students (including Indians) have been a major source of revenue. The drop in numbers may affect budgets, campus diversity and institutional planning. 

The ground-level reality: risk, disillusionment and myths

Beyond the numbers and policy shifts, there are personal and social narratives emerging from the India-Canada migration corridor. One notable account comes from Indian-Canadian YouTuber Kushal Mehra, whose stories raise red flags about what many students are experiencing.

Key take-aways from the narrative

• Mehra warns Indian parents not to send their children to Canada purely on the expectation of obtaining permanent residency. He argues that many of the colleges marketing to Indian students are effectively “diploma mills” — offering credentials with little genuine job-market value. 

• He claims to have assisted 13 Indian-origin women back to India, citing their victimisation in situations of exploitation and human-trafficking while being in Canada. He estimates thousands of Indian women in Canada are vulnerable to the sex-trade via predatory networks. 

• His critique also extends to the “study–work–stay” pathway: the narrative that you study in Canada, then work, then stay permanently has been undercut by increasing policy scrutiny, fewer job prospects, high housing/rent costs and anti-immigrant sentiment. 

Why this matters

These stories highlight that the migration journey isn’t just about visa approvals. It involves:

• Expectation-management: Students and families often assume a linear path to PR once you study in Canada; the reality is much more complex.

• Quality of institution: Not all colleges/universities offer equivalent value. The risk of ending up in programmes with weak employment outcomes is higher.

• Vulnerability of students: Especially international students far from home, who may lack social support or get caught in exploitative situations.

• Economic and social integration: Even with a visa, securing meaningful employment, affordable housing and long-term stability in a foreign country remains a challenge.

Implications for Indian students, families and institutions

For Indian students and parents

• It’s vital to do due diligence: Check the reputation of the institution, the visa approval trends, job-placement records post-study, and the actual cost of living and working in Canada.

• Treat the Canada option as one of many pathways, not the automatic one. With increasing rejections and policy changes, having alternative destinations (e.g., Australia, United Kingdom, or Indian universities) makes sense. In fact, one report notes Indian student visa approvals increased by ~20 % in Australia and ~15 % in the UK in 2025. 

• Be clear about motivation and outcome: Are you going for the experience, the quality of education, the chance to work afterwards — or primarily for PR? The pathway to PR is no longer as straightforward as assumed.

• Financial transparency is crucial: With enhanced verification in Canada, banks, source of funds, background of admission letters all matter more.

For Canadian institutions

• The drop in Indian enrolments poses strategic risks: reduced diversity, revenue shortfall, weaker pipelines of talent from India.

• Institutions may need to rethink marketing in India: Avoid over-promising PR pathways, ensure clarity on outcomes and value proposition.

• Strengthening collaborations with Indian institutions and offering credible support services (career placement, internships) could help stabilise enrolments.

For policymakers and education agents in India

• Students must be warned about the risks of unverified institutions or agents promising guaranteed PR, especially when such promises turn into traps.

• Educational counselling needs to be realistic about visa trends, job markets abroad, cost-benefit analysis of studying internationally vs locally.

• Agents need to be regulated more strictly against promoting scams (fake admission letters, diploma mills) — one of the primary triggers of Canada’s crackdown.

What lies ahead?

• We may see further tightening of Canada’s student-permit programmes, especially for large source markets like India. The 2025 cap already indicates this shift.

• Indian student flows are likely to diversify: More students might choose other destinations (Australia, UK, Germany, etc), or stay in India for higher education if overseas options grow uncertain.

• For those still targeting Canada, the quality of application will matter more than ever: stronger proof of genuine academic intent, sufficient finance, credible institution, realistic career outcome.

• Canada’s universities will need to navigate between protecting immigration integrity (as the policy says) and retaining their appeal to top international talent — including from India. The balance will shape the next phase of global higher education flows.

Conclusion

The era when “study in Canada → work → stay” was seen as a relatively sure-path is visibly changing — at least for many Indian students. Rising visa-refusal rates, tighter policy, institutional shifts and personal risk narratives all suggest a recalibration. For students, parents, institutions and agents alike, the message is clear: do deeper research, set realistic expectations, diversify options and remain vigilant against overly-optimistic promises.