A New Chapter in a Long-Standing Partnership

A New Chapter in a Long-Standing Partnership

When Donald Trump addressed the swearing-in ceremony of Sergio Gor as the new US Ambassador to India, his remarks signalled more than diplomatic courtesy: they gave a peek into what could be a significant pivot in trade relations between United States and India. “We’re making a deal with India… we’re getting a fair deal,” he said. 
That phrase—“fair deal”—is loaded. It suggests the US is seeking a reset, and India, with its 1.5 billion people and one of the world’s oldest civilisations, is very much ideally placed in U.S. eyes. Trump added, “They’re very good negotiators… I think we’re pretty close to doing a deal that is good for everybody.” 

What the Deal Could Look Like

One of the big take-aways: tariffs. Trump acknowledged that tariffs on India remain “very high” because of issues like Russian oil, but declared: “Yeah, we’re going to be bringing the tariffs down. At some point, we’re going to be bringing them down.” 
On the Indian side, Piyush Goyal, India’s Commerce and Industry Minister, said on 5 November that talks on the bilateral trade agreement are “going on very well,” though “many sensitive and serious issues” are still up for negotiation. 
The goal? To more than double bilateral trade from the current ~US $191 billion to US $500 billion by 2030. 
So far, five rounds of talks have taken place since March, including a virtual round on 23 October. 
The tentative expectation: a first-phase deal could be signed by end of 2025.

Why Now? Why India?

Several motives seem to converge:

• The US wants to re-balance trade relationships and secure allies in a changing global economy. India’s strategic role is growing.

• For India, an agreement with the US could accelerate economic growth, increase market access, and spur manufacturing/investment.

• Geopolitical context matters: the mention of Russian oil shows how sanctions, supply chains, and global politics are interwoven with trade policy. Trump’s remark that Indian imports of Russian oil “have been reduced very substantially” signals that trade discussions are being informed not just by economics but by geopolitics too. 

What’s Still on the Table

The devil remains in the details. Goyal’s reference to “sensitive and serious issues” hints at stuck points such as:

• Tariff levels and schedules: which products, from who, when?

• Services trade, digital trade rules, investment protections.

• Supply-chain security, local content rules, and jurisdictional/regulatory frameworks.

• How to manage overlap with free-trade-agreements or regional arrangements.

• Timing: while a first phase deal by end-2025 is referenced, “first phase” suggests there will be follow-on rounds and further liberalisation.

Implications: For India, For the US, For the World

For India

If the deal proceeds smoothly: increased exports to the US market, potentially lower trade-barriers for Indian goods and services, and a signal to global investors that India is open and ready. It might also further push India’s “Make in India” or manufacturing-export thrust.

For the US

Access to an emerging market of over a billion people; strategic diversification of supply chains away from over-dependence on any one country; and a political win in showing that “America is open for business” again.

For the Global Economy

Such a deal could set a precedent: large-economy-to-large-economy, swinging away from purely protectionist stances. It may also trigger other trade relationships in the region, and shift global supply-chain calculations.
However, risk remains: if expectations are raised too high and the deal falters, trade tensions may worsen rather than improve.

My Take: A “Fair Deal” in Progress

The narrative of “they’ll love us again” might sound light-hearted, but underlying it is serious business. The US is effectively telling India: “we recognise your value, and we want you onboard.” Meanwhile, India is choosing to engage rather than stand aside.
The timetable—targeting end of 2025 for a first phase—is ambitious. Trade negotiations at this scale rarely progress linearly. But the fact that both sides are publicly signalling progress is encouraging.
For businesses, exporters, investors in both countries: this is a period to watch. If tariffs are legitimately reduced and access improves, new opportunities will emerge. On the flip side, companies must remain agile—many “sensitive” issues remain unresolved, and the devil is always in implementation.
In short: the wind seems to be blowing favourably for US-India trade. Whether the sails are fully raised remains to be seen.