The Big Picture — Why Gold is Glimmering
Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset remains strong. The article highlights several key factors:
- Global central banks are accumulating gold — in Q3 2025 they purchased ~220 tonnes, which is up ~28% from the previous quarter.
- In India, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) added almost 600 kg between April and September, taking the reserves to about 880 tonnes.
- The article observes that gold is benefiting from macro uncertainty: ambiguous global growth outlook, inflation risks, central-bank policy shifts, currency and geopolitical volatility.
So the long-term “bullish” case for gold is intact: it remains a hedge and portfolio diversifier.
Recent Dip and What It Means
However, the article also flags that prices have already seen strong gains this year and are now experiencing a pull-back:
- In India, gold hit a record of about ₹1,32,294 per 10 g in the festive season.
- On November 17, the price stood at ~₹1,23,180 per 10 g, down ~6.9% from the recent peak.
- According to the analyst Manav Modi (Precious Metal Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services), given that prices have already rallied 60–70 % this year, “some degree of cooling off and profit booking is warranted.”
Therefore: While gold is structurally positive, near-term there may be turbulence (or consolidation) rather than a straight up move.
Strategy: What Should Investors Do?
The article offers concrete guidance:
- Book profits on sharp rise – If your gold holding has appreciated significantly, it may be wise to take some profits, rather than simply let it ride.
- Accumulate on dips – When gold price corrects, it could offer a better entry point. The analyst mentions that between ~₹1,18,000 – ₹1,20,000 per 10 g (assuming USD/INR near 90) serves as “strong support”.
- Focus on a one-year plus horizon – For those with at least a 12-month investment horizon, gold (and silver) ETFs can be a transparent, liquid way to participate.
Silver & ETFs — The Supporting Cast
The article also touches on other related themes:
- Silver: With its dual role (safe-haven + industrial use), silver is seen as having structural tailwinds—EVs, solar manufacturing, clean energy demand are driving industrial consumption.
- ETFs: Gold ETFs in India have grown strongly (AUM nearing ₹1 lakh crore), and silver ETFs are also growing (towards ~₹35,000 crore). They offer cost-effective exposure.
Risk & Things to Watch
The article sensibly reminds us that despite the bullish backdrop, gold is not risk-free. Some of the key risk factors:
- The direction of the Federal Reserve (Fed): With a rate-cut expectation of December having fallen from ~90% to ~50%, any shift in policy will impact gold’s upside potential.
- Currency/FX: The USD/INR path influences domestic gold price in India (imported commodity, duty & regulatory factors, etc).
- Investor behaviour & volatility: Gold is seeing unusually large daily swings and higher implied volatility—suggesting risk of sharp moves in either direction.
So, Is Now the Right Time to Buy?
Here’s a summary view:
- Yes, if you believe in gold’s structural role (inflation hedge, safe-asset, central bank accumulation) and you have a medium-to-long-term horizon (1 year+).
- Cautiously, if your horizon is short and you’re hoping for rapid gains—there may be limited upside in the near term and risks of pull-back.
- Strategically, if you’re already holding gold and it has appreciated significantly, consider profit-booking or rebalancing.
- Tactically, if price dips into support zones (e.g., around ~₹1,18,000–₹1,20,000 per 10 g) could offer a decent entry point — but watch the signals (FX, global rates, geopolitics).
For Indian Investors – Context Matters
A few India-specific importances:
- Factor in import duties, GST, making charges (for jewellery) – these can affect returns.
- Gold in India often has emotional/festival/ritual use which can impact demand and price seasonality. The article noted the recent high after festive season demand.
- Options to invest: physical gold (coins, bars, jewellery), gold ETFs, sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) – depending on your preference for holding, cost, liquidity, and taxation.
- Keep an eye on domestic currency (₹) movements and global price dynamics since gold is an internationally traded commodity.
Final Thoughts
To wrap up: Gold is shining bright — but it’s not a one-way street. The fundamentals (central bank demand, macro uncertainties, industrial support for silver) remain favourable. At the same time, recent strong gains and near-term uncertainty (rates, currency, global growth) suggest the need for a measured approach: buy with patience, treat dips as opportunity, and ensure your horizon matches the asset’s nature.
If you’re considering buying gold now, ask yourself:
- What’s my time horizon?
- How much of my portfolio should be in safe-assets like gold?
- Am I prepared for volatility and potential short-term corrections?
- Which mode of gold investment suits me (physical vs ETF vs SGBs)?
Reviewed by Aparna Decors
on
November 17, 2025
Rating:
