The Fall of a Giant: What Sheikh Hasina’s Conviction Means for Bangladesh — and the Region
On 17 November 2025, Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal in Dhaka convicted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of crimes against humanity for her alleged role in ordering a lethal crackdown on student-led protests in mid-2024. The verdict — delivered in Hasina’s absence after she fled to India in August 2024 — is a seismic moment in Bangladesh’s modern political history. It rewrites the legal and political contours of a country that for decades revolved around Hasina and her Awami League party, and it raises immediate questions about stability, justice, and regional diplomacy.
What happened — the basics
- The tribunal found Hasina and several top aides guilty of orchestrating a violent response to nationwide student protests in July–August 2024. Prosecutors say state forces used helicopters, drones and lethal weapons against largely unarmed demonstrators. A United Nations estimate cited in reporting placed the death toll from the crackdown as high as about 1,400 people.
- Hasina has been in exile in India since her ouster in August 2024 and did not return to face the tribunal; proceedings were therefore held in absentia. Dhaka has previously issued arrest warrants and formally sought her return.
- The verdict comes amid heightened security in the capital and a wave of pre-verdict violence (crude bomb blasts, arson attacks on buses and property), reflecting how sharply polarised the country remains. Authorities recorded dozens of crude explosions and multiple incidents of arson in the days before the ruling.
Why this matters (short answer)
- Political realignment: Hasina has dominated Bangladeshi politics for 15 years; her conviction removes a major political axis and threatens to further splinter or radicalise her supporters and opponents.
- Risk of unrest: The conviction has already coincided with violent incidents and heavy security measures — unrest could widen, especially if supporters mobilise or if state and non-state actors exploit the moment.
- Regional diplomacy: India — where Hasina is sheltered — and other neighbours now face delicate choices about extradition, asylum, and bilateral ties with Dhaka. New Delhi’s posture will be watched closely.
- Precedent for accountability (or politicisation): Trials of former heads of government for alleged mass abuses are rare; supporters of the tribunal say it enforces accountability, critics call it victor’s justice. How the courts and interim government manage transparency, appeal rights and due process will shape legitimacy.
The legal and credibility questions
The tribunal used evidence such as surveillance footage, drone logs and testimony from former officials. But the case’s political backdrop — an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, a ban on Hasina’s Awami League from contesting elections, and the tribunal’s reconfiguration — has led critics and some legal observers to question impartiality and due process. Supporters argue the gravity of the alleged crimes necessitated an uncompromising investigation. The clash between these narratives will influence whether the verdict is seen as legitimate justice or a politically driven purge.
Domestic reaction — on the ground
- Security clampdown: Authorities enforced heavy security in Dhaka and other cities ahead of the verdict; some areas saw checkpoints, curfews and rapid response units deployed.
- Violent flashpoints: Reporting documented bomb explosions, vehicle arson and attacks on infrastructure in the lead-up to the ruling. These incidents indicate both the potential for wider unrest and the presence of actors able to trigger violence quickly.
- Political mobilisation: Hasina’s network and the Awami League base are disoriented and outraged; interim authorities have framed the trials as restoring accountability after the 2024 crisis. Expect intensified street politics, legal appeals, and possibly targeted reprisals or crackdowns depending on how the state perceives threats.
International dimension
- India: Hasina’s presence in New Delhi complicates bilateral ties. Dhaka has formally requested her return; New Delhi has so far resisted extradition and faces diplomatic pressure from both sides (domestic and regional). How India navigates asylum, extradition requests and law-and-order considerations will be a test of its regional policy.
- Other foreign actors: Western governments and multilateral institutions are likely to call for restraint, respect for due process, and protection of civilians — while balancing strategic ties and concerns about instability. Early reporting signals worry about spillover effects and human rights implications.
Possible scenarios (next 1–6 months)
- Managed calm: Heavy policing, limited allowances for protest and a mediated political settlement reduce violence; international actors provide quiet support for stabilising institutions. (Lower-probability if polarisation remains high.)
- Escalation and guerrilla-style attacks: Continued disruptive attacks by armed groups or militants, or a campaign of sabotage by political hard-liners, prompts broad security crackdowns. (Reported pre-verdict attacks make this realistic.)
- Diplomatic standoff with India: Dhaka intensifies pressure on New Delhi for extradition; India resists, triggering a bilateral diplomatic crisis with economic and security spillovers.
- Legal back-and-forth: Appeals, international legal challenges, and charges of procedural flaws prolong legal limbo and keep the country politically unsettled.
What observers, journalists and policymakers should watch next
- Official statements from India and Bangladesh (diplomatic notes, extradition requests, or asylum decisions).
- Security incidents and casualty reports — these will indicate whether unrest is localised or spreading.
- Judicial filings and appeals — transparency in legal records will be central to assessments of legitimacy.
- Humanitarian indicators (displacement, hospital admissions, internet and media blackouts) indicating how civilians are affected.
- Regional diplomatic moves (statements from India, Pakistan, China, the US, and UN bodies).
A closing thought
This verdict is both a legal milestone and a political fuse. Whether it becomes a stepping stone toward accountability and reconciliation — or a trigger for deeper instability — depends on how Bangladeshi institutions, political leaders, and regional actors handle the aftermath. Clear, transparent legal processes, credible safeguards for civilian safety, and urgent diplomatic engagement to avoid escalation are the practical necessities now.
Reviewed by Aparna Decors
on
November 17, 2025
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