Top Indian & Global Stocks to Watch Heading into 2026 — Market-ready forecast

Published: Dec 30, 2025 (data and citations reflect market moves through Dec 29–30, 2025).
Sources used: Indian market live feeds (Sensex / Nifty), company announcements, recent M&A/merger filings, IPO performance trackers, and major global market coverage. Key source links appear inline after each section.

Executive summary (TL;DR)

Indian markets finished 2025 on a soft note — Sensex near ≈84,700 and Nifty below 25,950, with foreign institutional flows and profit-taking cited as immediate drivers.
A big corporate catalyst: Ambuja Cements (Adani Group) has approved amalgamation plans to fold ACC and Orient Cement into Ambuja — a consolidation that materially reshapes India’s cement sector and will influence winners/losers in early 2026.
Globally, tech and AI/semiconductor names remain central to upside (Nvidia, Intel) while commodity and cyclicals will react to macro and geopolitical drivers. US markets paused a year-end rally on profit-taking.
Short forecast (early 2026): AI/chip suppliers, infrastructure beneficiaries, selective financials, and consolidated cement players are likely winners; highly leveraged small-caps, interest-rate-sensitive real-estate names, and certain legacy exporters could lag. Rationale and tickers below.

1 — Market snapshot (what’s happening right now)

Sensex / Nifty: Indian indices slipped at the close on Dec 29 — Sensex ~84,695.54 and Nifty trading below 25,950, with drops attributed to FII flows and sector rotation (IT, ports among underperformers). This loss of year-end momentum raises volatility risk into January 2026.
US/Global: US markets also pulled back at the year end (S&P and Nasdaq softer), with tech names leading moves as investors lock gains ahead of the New Year. That sets a cautious global tone for early 2026.

2 — Major corporate moves to know (India) and why they matter

Ambuja / ACC / Orient Cement (Adani Group) — consolidation

Ambuja’s board approved merger schemes to fold ACC and Orient Cement into Ambuja (appointed date for ACC: Jan 1, 2026; Orient retrospective to May 1, 2025). Management expects logistics/operational synergies and scale benefits; brokerages view the consolidation as positive for Ambuja’s margins and competitive position vs UltraTech. This is a structural event that will re-rank winners within cement and influence sector supply dynamics early in 2026.

M&A & deal climate

Deal activity in 2025 showed fewer outsized transactions and a decline in average deal value (Grant Thornton dealtracker), indicating a cautious M&A backdrop — this means corporate actions that do happen (like large consolidations) will have outsized stock-market impact.

3 — Top Indian stocks to watch into early 2026 (with rationale & position idea)

For each name I give 1–2 short thesis bullets, near-term catalysts to watch, and whether I view it as Likely Winner or Risk / Possible Loser.

1) Ambuja Cements (ABUJ / AMBUJA) — Likely Winner

Thesis: Major consolidation (ACC + Orient + existing Ambuja assets) gives scale, cost synergies, and improved pricing/route-to-market; market has reacted positively to board approval. Watch: merger approvals (NCLT), appointed dates, and synergies guidance.

2) UltraTech Cement (ULTRATECH) — Watch (defensive leader)

Thesis: Market leader; consolidation by rivals increases competition but UltraTech’s scale and nationwide footprint help defend price/margin. Watch: pricing discipline across key regions and raw-material input trends.

3) HCL Tech (HCLTECH) — Watch / Speculative

Thesis: Recent weakness (reported among underperformers on Dec 29) reflects profit-taking and margin concerns; IT names can oscillate with USD demand and commentary on FY26 guidance. Positive catalysts: strong deal wins, improved attrition metrics.

4) Bharti Airtel (BHARTIARTL) — Watch / Tactical

Thesis: Large telcos remain strategic plays on 5G monetization and average revenue per user (ARPU) improvement; short-term share moves can be volatile (Bharti slipped Dec 29). Key catalysts: subscriber ARPU release, capex guidance, and consolidation in telecom.

5) Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADANIPORTS) — Risk / Volatile

Thesis: Sensitive to shipping volumes and global trade; recent weakness noted among the index laggards — watch import/export cycles and container rates.

6) Select PSU banks / Private banks (e.g., HDFC Bank, ICICI, SBI) — Potential Winners

Thesis: Early-2026 could favor banks if credit growth stabilizes and asset-quality remains benign; look for margin guidance, retail loan growth, and CASA ratios.

7) Domestic industrials / infra plays (construction, logistics) — Watchlist

Thesis: With the government and private infra pipeline, companies with order books and execution clarity could outperform. Watch budget / infra announcements in early 2026.

(Position sizing note: these are directional ideas — size exposures per risk tolerance and use stop-losses in choppy early-Jan liquidity.)

4 — Top global stocks/areas to watch into early 2026

AI & semiconductors — Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC), AMD, Broadcom

Why: AI hardware/software licensing and chip demand remain primary growth drivers. Nvidia continues to command attention (moves in late-Dec), and chip suppliers that report better-than-expected earnings or large customer wins will be favored. Intel showed recent relative outperformance on dec 29 even amid a weak market day.

EV / Auto Tech — Tesla (TSLA)

Why: Long-term growth story (robotaxi hopes) but high near-term sensitivity to margins and production cadence. Tesla fell ~3.3% on Dec 29 as investors book profits.

Energy & Commodities — Freeport-McMoRan, Newmont, key oil names

Why: Commodities face macro and geopolitics; gold and base-metal moves drive miners. Newmont and copper/gold plays moved sharply year-end.

5 — IPOs & recent listings: what to watch (India)

2025 IPO landscape: a healthy pipeline and outsize gains in SME issues were reported across platforms — some 2025 IPOs delivered strong listing gains, but breadth matters (many small issues also underperform). For early 2026, investor appetite will depend on macro, Q3/FY26 earnings season, and liquidity. Use IPO-trackers (Screener, Upstox, Groww) for listing performance and subscription metrics.

6 — Forecast: Winners & Losers — early 2026 (concise)

Likely winners (higher probability)

AI/semiconductor plays — firms showing secular AI demand and better revenue visibility (NVDA suppliers, selected fabless firms).
Consolidated cement leaders (Ambuja, UltraTech) — scale, network optimization, pricing power after recent consolidation moves.
Select banks / financials — if credit growth and NIMs stabilize; watch early-Jan policy commentary.
Infrastructure & logistics — beneficiaries of capex and order-book visibility.

Potential losers / higher-risk

Highly leveraged small caps — vulnerable in risk-off or if liquidity tightens.
Interest-rate sensitive real-estate names — especially those with stretched balance sheets.
Single-product, low-margin exporters — currency swings and demand weakness could hit them.

7 — Watchlist + action plan for investors (practical)

Create a 3-bucket watchlist (Size suggestions are illustrative only):
- Core (30–50%): Large-cap industry leaders (HDFC Bank, UltraTech, Ambuja)
- Growth/opportunity (30%): AI chip suppliers, tech firms with clear FY26 guidance (NVDA suppliers for global investors; HCL/Infosys for India exposure)
- Tactical/speculative (20–40%): Recent IPOs with strong fundamentals, small-cap cyclical plays — keep small position sizes.
Event calendar (near-term, early Jan 2026): monitor Q3 / Q4 earnings cadence, Ambuja merger approvals and appointed dates, RBI commentary (liquidity), and US CPI/global macro prints that can sway risk assets.
Risk controls: use staggered entries (averaging), keep cash buffer for volatility, and set stop-loss levels. Avoid overconcentration into a single sector.

8 — Data & evidence summary (most load-bearing sources used)

Sensex / Nifty year-end moves and stock-level commentary: Moneycontrol / Economic Times market live coverage.
Ambuja/Adani cement consolidation (board approvals, appointed dates, swap ratios): company release, Economic Times, Reuters, S&P/Industry press.
Global market movers (Nvidia, Tesla, Newmont) and US year-end flow commentary: Barron’s and Reuters coverage.
IPO / recent listing performance and IPO pipeline context: Screener, Upstox, Groww IPO pages.
Deal climate & M&A trends 2025: Grant Thornton Dealtracker.

9 — Quick checklist for next 2–6 weeks (practical)

Confirm Ambuja merger filings and NCLT hearing dates (deal completion timelines matter).
Watch Jan earnings guidance from major IT names (HCL, TCS, Infosys) and order-book commentary from infra/cement.
Monitor US CPI / Fed-speak and global risk sentiment — a volatility spike could disproportionately hit small-caps and speculative IPO winners.

Final thoughts (bottom line)

Early 2026 is shaping up to reward scale + clarity (companies with clear deal synergies, strong balance sheets, and exposure to secular themes like AI or infrastructure). The Ambuja consolidation is a sectoral inflection point for Indian cement — that single corporate move alone will re-shape winners and losers in the sector. Globally, the AI/semiconductor complex remains the main engine for outsized returns — but it’s sensitive to macro and profit-taking at quarter/year-end boundaries, so position sizing and risk controls are essential.

Top Indian & Global Stocks to Watch Heading into 2026 — Market-ready forecast .