Goldman Sachs 2026 Commodities Outlook: Bullish for Gold, Bearish for Oil.

📈 Goldman Sachs 2026 Commodities Outlook: Bullish for Gold, Bearish for Oil

Goldman Sachs — one of the world’s largest investment banks — has released its 2026 Commodities Outlook, and the predictions are bold. According to their latest research note, Goldman is advising investors to:

Buy gold with a price target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.
Sell oil, as it expects prices to remain pressured by persistent oversupply.

Let’s dive into the complete macro picture, the rationale behind these forecasts, and what it could mean for markets.

🥇 1. Gold: Goldman’s Top Trade for 2026

🎯 Record Target: $4,900 per ounce

Goldman Sachs has declared gold as its “single favorite long commodity” for 2026. Their forecast calls for gold to climb to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 — which would be a new all-time high.

🧠 Why Gold? Key Drivers

Gold’s projected rally is grounded in several structural and cyclical forces:

📊 Central bank buying: Goldman expects central banks to accumulate roughly 70 tonnes of gold per month in 2026 — about 4× the pre-2022 average.
🏦 Low private investor exposure: Gold ETFs account for just ~0.17% of U.S. private portfolios — suggesting room for more inflows.
🧱 Safe-haven demand: Amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, gold remains a defensive asset. Recent trends show strong gold performance already.
📉 Potential Fed rate cuts could support gold by lowering real yields and enhancing its appeal vs. interest-bearing assets.

The combination of these factors makes gold an attractive hedge against risk and currency weaknesses.

🛢️ 2. Oil: Brace for Weakness

📉 Bearish Outlook

On the flip side, Goldman is pessimistic about oil, particularly in 2026. The bank forecasts that:

Brent crude will average around $56 per barrel.
WTI crude could average roughly $52 per barrel.

Even if global demand keeps growing moderately, a large supply surplus — especially from non-OPEC production — could continue to outweigh demand in 2026. Unless major producers make big output cuts or unexpected geopolitical events disrupt supply, oil prices could stay subdued.

🛠️ 3. Other Commodities: Copper and Battery Metals

Goldman also assessed other major commodity categories:

🔧 Copper: Hold (but watch consolidation)

Copper — a key industrial metal — has enjoyed strong demand, particularly for electrification and data-center growth. However, Goldman expects 2026 to be a consolidation phase, with prices hovering near $11,400 per metric ton.

They still view copper as a long-term favorite industrial metal, especially due to structural demand from electrification and AI-driven infrastructure.

⚡ Battery Metals: Avoid

Goldman is cautious on battery metals like lithium and nickel — citing an expected supply surge, particularly from China and other major producers. This could undercut prices through 2026.

🌍 4. Natural Gas and Broad Commodities Themes

Beyond metals and oil, Goldman highlights broader trends:

LNG supply wave: Exports could grow substantially, helping support U.S. natural gas prices even as global gas markets remain oversupplied.
U.S.–China resource competition: Geopolitical dynamics, especially the AI and technology power race, may strengthen demand for strategic metals.

📊 Market Implications: What Investors Should Know

Here’s how the outlook might translate into positioning:

✅ Bullish on gold
If gold reaches $4,900/oz, it could remain a key safe-haven play through 2026. This trend may attract both institutional and retail capital — especially where investors want protection against volatility and inflation pressures.

⚠️ Be cautious on oil exposure
Energy investors may need to prepare for sideways or downward price pressure unless supply cuts or geopolitical disturbances alter market balance.

🔄 Rebalance portfolios toward industrial metals and away from supply-heavy segments
Copper’s consolidation suggests a wait-and-see approach — while exposure to battery metals may need to be limited due to oversupply.

🧠 Final Takeaway

Goldman Sachs’ 2026 outlook paints a divergent picture across the commodities landscape:

✨ Gold prices are expected to soar on structural demand and diversification trends.
📉 Oil and some energy markets face persistent excess supply.
🔁 Industrial metals like copper remain attractive over the long term, though prices may consolidate.

For investors, this outlook underscores the importance of allocating smartly across commodities, balancing defensive themes with growth prospects.