Greggs Raises 2026 Profit Outlook as Sales Growth Accelerates in Third Quarter
Britain’s Greggs has raised its full-year profit outlook after stronger trading in the third quarter, with improved sales momentum, new products and more settled weather helping the food-to-go chain.
Greggs has upgraded its expectations for 2026 after reporting a noticeable improvement in underlying sales growth during the third quarter. The update provides a positive indication that the company is gaining momentum after a more challenging first half of the year.
Greggs Sees Faster Like-for-Like Sales Growth
For the 13 weeks ending September 26, like-for-like sales at Greggs' company-managed shops increased 3.4%.
That represents an acceleration from the 2.1% growth recorded during the first half of 2026. The improvement is important because like-for-like sales provide a clearer view of demand at existing locations, rather than growth being driven mainly by opening additional shops.
The stronger third-quarter performance helped Greggs increase its annual profit expectations.
New Products Help Attract Customers
One factor behind the improved performance has been Greggs' continued expansion of its menu.
The company has been introducing products designed to respond to changing consumer preferences, while maintaining its focus on relatively affordable food-to-go options. Earlier in the year, its product development included items such as chicken rolls, salads and iced matcha lattes.
This strategy matters because customers' tastes can change quickly in the competitive food-to-go market. Greggs is therefore trying to balance its established products with newer options that can encourage additional visits.
Weather Also Played a Role
Greggs said more settled weather during August and September supported trading.
Weather can have a meaningful effect on food-to-go businesses because customer footfall, commuting patterns and demand for particular food and drink categories can change with conditions.
That means some of the latest sales improvement should be viewed in the context of both the company's own initiatives and external trading conditions.
Greggs Has Continued Expanding Its Store Network
Store expansion remains another important part of Greggs' longer-term growth strategy.
The company opened 34 net new shops during the first half of 2026, taking its estate to 2,773 locations at the end of June. Greggs has also said it sees potential to eventually operate at least 3,500 shops across the UK.
Alongside traditional stores, the company has been experimenting with alternative formats. Its Greggs Express concept, for example, is designed as a self-service food and coffee format aimed at customers in high-convenience locations such as travel hubs.
What the Profit Upgrade Means
The latest update suggests Greggs is converting improved sales momentum into a better full-year profit outlook.
However, sales growth alone does not tell the entire story. Retailers also have to manage wages, food costs, energy expenses, property costs and investment in new locations.
This makes the company's ability to protect margins while continuing to expand an important factor for investors to watch.
Greggs' first-half results already showed the business was capable of growing sales and profits despite a challenging food-to-go environment. Total first-half sales increased 7.2% to £1.1 billion, while profit before tax rose 19.7% to £76 million.
Why This Update Matters for Greggs
The third-quarter figures point to an improvement in the underlying trading picture.
The key change is the acceleration in like-for-like sales from 2.1% in the first half to 3.4% in the latest 13-week period. If the stronger momentum can be maintained, it could provide Greggs with greater flexibility to support its expansion plans and absorb cost pressures.
At the same time, investors will need to distinguish between temporary factors, such as favourable weather, and more durable sources of growth, such as product innovation, customer demand and successful new-store locations.
The Bigger Picture
Greggs is increasingly more than a traditional bakery chain. Its strategy combines a large physical store network with menu innovation, new store formats and investments designed to support further expansion.
The latest profit outlook upgrade therefore reflects more than one strong quarter. It highlights how Greggs is attempting to strengthen its business by combining its established value proposition with changing customer habits.
The next important question will be whether the improved sales momentum continues into the final quarter and how effectively that growth translates into profitability.
For now, the September trading update provides evidence of stronger momentum at Greggs, while the company's longer-term performance will depend on maintaining customer demand, controlling costs and executing its expansion strategy effectively.
